Paccar (PCAR) Analysis

This report is auto-generated by an AI stock research platform for informational purposes only. The content is for general information and research reference, and does not constitute financial advice. Data may lag or be incomplete. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. # [Qiltrack AI] Paccar Inc (PCAR) 3-Minute Overview > **💡 One-Sentence Summary** > > Simply put, Paccar is a heavy-duty truck and commercial vehicle maker that still earns solid money, but right now the market is paying up for a business facing slower near-term earnings momentum. > **📍 Basic Profile** > > Market Cap **$66.8 billion** · Machinery · NASDAQ NMS - GLOBAL MARKET · Price **$127** > **⚡ 3 Things You Should Know** > > 1. 💰 Still a quality industrial business: Paccar’s TTM net margin is **8.35%** and operating margin is **13.16%**, which tells you this is not a weak cyclical manufacturer scraping by—it still converts truck demand into real profit. > > 2. 📉 Near-term momentum has cooled: the last 4 quarters show **3 earnings misses**, including one very large miss in Q1 2025, and recent headlines also point to **expected earnings decline**—basically, the business looks fine, but expectations have gotten harder to beat. > > 3. 🏷️ Valuation leaves less room for error: at **28.1x TTM PE** and with the stock sitting near its **52-week high**, the market is pricing PCAR more like a premium compounder than a plain-cycle truck maker, so any further slowdown could matter. > **🎯 Quick Health Check** > > | Dimension | Rating | Details | > |-----------|--------|---------| > | Profitability | Medium✋ | Net margin 8.35%, respectable for an industrial manufacturer | > | Growth Rate | Slow🐢 | 3-year revenue growth -0.44%, recent earnings expectations softening | > | Financial Health | Moderate💛 | Debt/equity 81.17%, current ratio 1.61 | > | Valuation | Pricey | PE 28.13 times | --- ### 📋 Layer 2: 2-Minute Deep Dive #### 📊 How Does This Company Make Money? **Business Model in One Sentence:** Paccar sells heavy-duty trucks and related commercial vehicle products to fleet operators and transportation customers, making money from manufacturing, vehicle sales, and related support businesses. **Revenue Breakdown:** | Business | Share | Trend | Comment | |----------|-------|-------|---------| | Truck manufacturing | [Data unavailable] | → | This is clearly the core engine, but exact segment split wasn’t provided in the dataset. | | Parts/financial services/other support businesses | [Data unavailable] | → | These businesses usually matter because they smooth cyclicality, but exact contribution is not available here. | **Profitability Metrics:** | Metric | Value | Ranking | Interpretation | |--------|-------|---------|----------------| | Gross Margin | 20.07% | Average | Decent pricing power for a capital-goods company, though not unusually high | | Net Margin | 8.35% | Average | Shows the company is still meaningfully profitable even in a softer part of the cycle | | ROE | 12.57% | Average | Good enough to show efficient capital use, but not at elite industrial levels right now | --- #### 📈 How's the Growth? **Growth Assessment:** Slowing | Metric | Latest | vs Last Year | Trend | |--------|--------|--------------|-------| | Revenue Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | Slowing | | Profit Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | Slowing | **Growth Quality:** > What’s worth noting is that longer-term growth is decent—**5-year revenue growth is 8.72%** and **5-year EPS growth is 12.6%**—but the more recent picture is less exciting. **3-year revenue growth is slightly negative (-0.44%)**, and earnings surprises have turned mixed-to-weak. In other words, this doesn’t look like broken growth, but it does look like a company coming off a stronger part of the cycle. --- #### 💰 Financial Health Check **One Sentence:** Think of it like a solid household with good income and manageable bills, but not one sitting on a huge cash cushion. | Metric | Value | Safe Zone | Assessment | |--------|-------|-----------|------------| | Debt Ratio | 81.17% | <60% safe | ⚠️High | | Current Ratio | 1.61 | >1.5 healthy | ✅Safe | | Cash Flow | $6.34/share | >0 | ✅Positive | What you might care about is that liquidity looks okay, but the balance sheet is not ultra-conservative. **Long-term debt/equity at 0.38** is more reassuring than the headline debt/equity number, and **interest coverage of 5.19x** suggests debt is serviceable, not distress-level. --- #### 🏷️ Is It Expensive Now? **Price Position (based on 52-week range):** - 52-Week Low: $84.65 - 52-Week High: $131.88 - Current: $127, **very close to high** | Position Range | Cheap Zone | Fair Zone | Pricey Zone | |----------------|------------|-----------|-------------| | Criteria | 0-33% | 33-66% | 66-100% | | **Current** | | | ●(89.7% position) | **Valuation Comparison:** | Comparison | Current | Reference | Assessment | |------------|---------|-----------|------------| | vs Own History | PE 28.13 times | 5-year avg [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | vs Peers | PE 28.13 times | Industry avg [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | **What the Current Valuation is Betting On:** > Basically, this valuation says the market believes Paccar can remain a high-quality industrial name despite a softer earnings patch. It’s betting that margin resilience, order recovery potential, and maybe improving European truck demand can offset cyclical pressure. If that recovery shows up, the multiple may hold; if not, the stock could look too expensive for a truck maker. --- #### 📰 Any Recent News? | Date | Event | Impact | |------|-------|--------| | 2026-04-22 | Wall Street looked ahead to Q1 key metrics for Paccar | Neutral — market is focused on operating details, which usually means expectations are finely tuned | | 2026-04-20 | Earnings preview said Q1 earnings expected to decline | Negative — reinforces the idea that near-term profit momentum is under pressure | | 2026-03-31 | BNP Paribas initiated at Neutral, citing improving European orders, $126 target | Mildly Positive — helpful signal for demand, but the Neutral rating shows enthusiasm is still measured | --- ### 📊 Layer 3: Want More? 3-Minute Complete Analysis #### I. Detailed Financial Data **Profitability Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Gross Margin | 20.07% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | Net Margin | 8.35% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | ROE | 12.57% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | **Growth Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Revenue Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | ↓ | | Profit Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | EPS Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | ↑ | --- #### II. Earnings Track Record **Last 4 Quarters vs Expectations:** | Quarter | EPS Expected | EPS Actual | Surprise | |---------|--------------|------------|----------| | 2025-12-31 | $1.08 | $1.06 | -2.05% Miss 😟 | | 2025-09-30 | $1.19 | $1.12 | -5.82% Miss 😟 | | 2025-06-30 | $1.32 | $1.37 | +4.02% Beat 😀 | | 2025-03-31 | $1.61 | $0.96 | -40.48% Miss 😟 | **Earnings Trend Interpretation:** Three misses in four quarters usually mean analysts and investors are still adjusting to a weaker operating environment. The big Q1 2025 miss is especially notable because it suggests the business can be more cyclical than the current premium multiple implies. --- #### III. What the Market Thinks **Analyst Ratings:** | Rating | Count | Percentage | |--------|-------|------------| | Strong Buy/Buy | 12 firms | 44.4% | | Hold | 14 firms | 51.9% | | Sell | 1 firm | 3.7% | **Target Price:** [Data unavailable] ~ [Data unavailable] (Median [Data unavailable]) **vs Current Price:** [Data unavailable] **Insider Activity:** Net **buying-like share increases reported**, but transaction value data is unavailable > Worth noting: the insider filings shown here are all coded **“J”**, which often reflects non-open-market share movements such as awards or other adjustments, not straightforward discretionary buying. So I would not read this as a strong bullish insider signal. --- #### IV. Key Risk Alerts **3 Risks to Watch:** 1. **Cycle Risk:** Paccar sells into trucking and freight demand, which can weaken quickly → If orders soften, revenue and margins can drop faster than the current stock multiple suggests 2. **Valuation Risk:** The stock is trading near its 52-week high at **28x earnings** → If earnings disappoint again, the market may compress the multiple even if the business stays profitable 3. **Balance Sheet/Distribution Risk:** The **95.42% payout ratio** is high → If profits stay soft, dividend flexibility could become more limited than investors expect --- ### 🎬 Summary & Next Steps > **📝 Three-Sentence Summary** > > **What it is:** Paccar is a well-run truck and commercial vehicle manufacturer with solid profitability and a reputation as a higher-quality name in a cyclical industry. > > **Key strength:** Its margins and cash generation are still decent for an industrial company, which helps it hold up better than weaker peers when the cycle cools. > > **Key risk:** The stock price already reflects a lot of confidence, while earnings momentum and recent surprises suggest the near term may be bumpier than the valuation assumes. --- > **🔍 Want to Learn More?** > > • Want to know if this company has a strong moat? → Try【Buffett Mode】for deeper analysis > > • Want to check for hidden landmines? → Try【Muddy Mode】for risk screening > > • Is this a growth stock? Want to calculate if it's worth the bet? → Try【Musk Mode】for analysis