Ferrovial SE (FER) Analysis

This report is auto-generated by an AI stock research platform for informational purposes only. The content is for general information and research reference, and does not constitute financial advice. Data may lag or be incomplete. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. # [Qiltrack AI] Ferrovial SE (FER) 3-Minute Overview > **💡 One-Sentence Summary** > > Simply put, Ferrovial is a global infrastructure operator and builder that gives you exposure to toll roads, airports, and civil engineering projects—basically a bet on long-lived assets tied to urban traffic and transport demand. > **📍 Basic Profile** > > Market Cap **€41.97 billion** · Construction / Infrastructure · BOLSA DE MADRID · Price **€68.98** > **⚡ 3 Things You Should Know** > > 1. 💰 Infrastructure quality, not contractor economics: Ferrovial’s reported gross margin is extremely high, which suggests the market is valuing it more like an infrastructure asset owner/operator than a plain construction company. In other words, investors care more about the quality of its concessions and recurring cash flows than raw project volume. > > 2. 📈 Revenue is growing steadily, but earnings quality looks uneven: revenue has compounded around 8% over 3–5 years, and recent 2025 results showed revenue up 8.6% and EBITDA up 12.2%. The catch is EPS growth over 3–5 years is negative, so the business is growing, but bottom-line translation has been lumpy. > > 3. ⚠️ Good company, less obvious bargain: the stock is trading above the provided 52-week high and near analyst target levels after a strong run, while leverage is also on the high side. Basically, the market already expects solid execution from its toll-road and infrastructure strategy. > **🎯 Quick Health Check** > > | Dimension | Rating | Details | > |-----------|--------|---------| > | Profitability | Medium✋ | Net margin 3.95%, modest for the sector despite very high gross margin | > | Growth Rate | Steady📈 | Revenue growth around 7.6%–7.9% over 3–5 years | > | Financial Health | Moderate💛 | Debt-to-equity 200.47%, current ratio 1.13 | > | Valuation | Pricey | P/B 6.76x, and current price sits above provided 52-week high data | --- ## 📋 Layer 2: 2-Minute Deep Dive #### 📊 How Does This Company Make Money? **Business Model in One Sentence:** Ferrovial develops, operates, and builds transport infrastructure for governments and users, making money through concession income, infrastructure services, and construction contracts. **Revenue Breakdown:** | Business | Share | Trend | Comment | |----------|-------|-------|---------| | Toll roads / infrastructure concessions | [Data unavailable] | ↑ | Likely the core value driver because these assets can produce recurring, inflation-linked cash flows | | Construction / engineering services | [Data unavailable] | → | Supports the platform, but typically lower quality and more cyclical than concessions | | Airports / other infrastructure assets | [Data unavailable] | ↑ | Adds long-duration infrastructure exposure, though exact current mix is not provided | **Profitability Metrics:** | Metric | Value | Ranking | Interpretation | |--------|-------|---------|----------------| | Gross Margin | 86.07% | Top tier / unusual for construction | This likely reflects an asset-heavy concessions mix rather than a normal contractor margin profile | | Net Margin | 3.95% | Below Average | A lot of that gross profit gets absorbed by operating costs, financing, and asset-level complexity | | ROE | 1.24% | Average-to-weak | Low ROE suggests current accounting profits are not especially strong relative to equity value | --- #### 📈 How's the Growth? **Growth Assessment:** Steady Growth | Metric | Latest | vs Last Year | Trend | |--------|--------|--------------|-------| | Revenue Growth | 7.64% (3Y CAGR) | 7.95% (5Y CAGR) | Stable | | Profit Growth | EPS -35.33% (3Y) | EPS -19.20% (5Y) | Slowing / uneven | **Growth Quality:** > What’s interesting is that top-line growth looks healthy and fairly consistent, and recent company updates said 2025 revenue rose 8.6% with EBITDA up 12.2%. But EPS growth is still negative over longer periods, which usually means the value creation is being diluted by financing costs, asset rotation effects, accounting noise, or project timing. So yes, the company is growing—but not in a perfectly clean, straight-line way. --- #### 💰 Financial Health Check **One Sentence:** This looks like someone with valuable real estate and solid income, but also a meaningful mortgage—financially workable, just not ultra-conservative. | Metric | Value | Safe Zone | Assessment | |--------|-------|-----------|------------| | Debt Ratio | Debt/Equity 200.47% | <60% safe | ⚠️High | | Current Ratio | 1.13 | >1.5 healthy | ⚠️Tight | | Cash Flow | €0.92/share | >0 | ✅Positive | | Interest Coverage | 7.52x | >3 generally okay | ✅Safe | --- #### 🏷️ Is It Expensive Now? **Price Position (based on 52-week range):** - 52-Week Low: €42.97 - 52-Week High: €63.54 - Current: €68.98, **above the provided 52-week high** | Position Range | Cheap Zone | Fair Zone | Pricey Zone | |----------------|------------|-----------|-------------| | Criteria | 0-33% | 33-66% | 66-100% | | **Current** | | | ●(126.4% position)* | \*Based on the structured data, the current quote is above the reported 52-week high, which suggests either a data timing mismatch or a fresh breakout. Either way, it signals the stock is trading at the upper end of sentiment. **Valuation Comparison:** | Comparison | Current | Reference | Assessment | |------------|---------|-----------|------------| | vs Own History | [Data unavailable] | 5-year avg PE [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | vs Peers | P/S 2.86x, P/B 6.76x | Industry avg [Data unavailable] | Hard to confirm precisely, but not obviously cheap | **What the Current Valuation is Betting On:** > Basically, the market seems to be betting that Ferrovial’s toll-road and infrastructure portfolio deserves a premium because these assets can generate durable, inflation-linked cash flows. It also implies investors expect execution in the U.S. and other urban transport markets to remain strong, without major project or financing disappointments. --- #### 📰 Any Recent News? | Date | Event | Impact | |------|-------|--------| | 2026-04-09 | AGM highlighted 2025 revenue up 9%, EBITDA up 12%, and approval of a €1B scrip dividend plan | Positive: operating momentum remains healthy and shareholder returns are still on the table | | 2026-02-25 | 2025 revenue rose 8.6% to €9.6B and adjusted EBITDA reached €1.5B | Positive: confirms the underlying business is still expanding at a solid pace | | 2026-02-25 | Jefferies downgraded Ferrovial to Hold while slightly raising target price | Neutral to Negative: usually a sign the story is still good, but upside may be less compelling after the rally | | 2026-02-26 | Ferrovial and Budimex won a $699m rail tunnel contract in Poland | Positive: supports backlog and shows it is still winning relevant infrastructure work | --- ## 📊 Layer 3: Want More? 3-Minute Complete Analysis #### I. Detailed Financial Data **Profitability Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Gross Margin | 86.07% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | Net Margin | 3.95% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | ROE | 1.24% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | **Growth Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Revenue Growth | 7.64%* | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | → | | Profit Growth | EPS -35.33%* | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | ↓ | | EPS Growth | -35.33% | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | ↓ | \*Using provided multi-year growth metrics rather than single-year audited line items. --- #### II. Earnings Track Record **Last 4 Quarters vs Expectations:** | Quarter | EPS Expected | EPS Actual | Surprise | |---------|--------------|------------|----------| | 2025-12-31 | €0.2565 | €0.27 | +5.26% Beat 😀 | | 2025-09-30 | €0.3262 | €0.36 | +10.36% Beat 😀 | | 2024-12-31 | €0.2343 | €3.67 | +1466.37% Beat 😀 | | 2021-09-30 | -€0.0582 | €0.1056 | +281.49% Beat 😀 | **Earnings Trend Interpretation:** Recent beats are encouraging, but worth noting the very large surprise in 2024 likely reflects one-off items or unusual accounting effects rather than normal operating momentum. So the pattern is positive, but I wouldn’t read it as a clean “steady EPS machine” story. --- #### III. What the Market Thinks **Analyst Ratings:** Using the latest available month (2026-05-01): | Rating | Count | Percentage | |--------|-------|------------| | Strong Buy/Buy | 17 firms | 65.4% | | Hold | 7 firms | 26.9% | | Sell | 2 firms | 7.7% | **Target Price:** [Data unavailable] ~ [Data unavailable] (Median [Data unavailable]) **vs Current Price:** [Data unavailable] **Insider Activity:** [Data unavailable] > No insider transaction data was provided, so there’s no clear signal here. --- #### IV. Key Risk Alerts **3 Risks to Watch:** 1. **Leverage Risk:** Debt-to-equity above 200% is high → If financing costs rise or projects underperform, equity returns could get squeezed. 2. **Execution Risk:** Ferrovial is leaning into large, long-duration infrastructure projects and concessions → If construction delays, cost overruns, or permitting issues hit, expected cash flows could slip. 3. **Valuation Risk:** The stock has already rerated strongly and is trading above the provided 52-week high → If growth remains merely “good” instead of “great,” the market may stop paying a premium. --- ## 🎬 Summary & Next Steps > **📝 Three-Sentence Summary** > > **What it is:** Ferrovial is basically a premium infrastructure name with exposure to toll roads, transport assets, and selective construction work. > > **Key strength:** Its appeal comes from owning and operating long-life infrastructure assets that can produce resilient, often inflation-linked cash flows. > > **Key risk:** The main issue is that leverage is meaningful and the stock already looks well-liked, so future returns may depend more on flawless execution than on multiple expansion. --- > **🔍 Want to Learn More?** > > • Want to know if this company has a strong moat? → Try【Buffett Mode】for deeper analysis > > • Want to check for hidden landmines? → Try【Muddy Mode】for risk screening > > • Is this a growth stock? Want to calculate if it's worth the bet? → Try【Musk Mode】for analysis