Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Analysis

This report is auto-generated by an AI stock research platform for informational purposes only. The content is for general information and research reference, and does not constitute financial advice. Data may lag or be incomplete. Always conduct your own research and consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. # [Qiltrack AI] agilon health inc (AGL) 3-Minute Overview > **💡 One-Sentence Summary** > > Simply put, agilon health is a value-based healthcare platform that partners with primary care doctors, and right now it looks like a turnaround story: the stock just exploded on a big earnings beat, but the underlying business still carries real execution risk. > **📍 Basic Profile** > > Market Cap **$0.46 billion** · Health Care · NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. · Price **$60.66** > **⚡ 3 Things You Should Know** > > 1. 📈 Turnaround momentum is suddenly back: Q1 2026 swung to profit, crushed estimates, and management raised guidance—so the market is no longer pricing AGL like a business in free fall. > > 2. ⚠️ The long-term fundamentals still look messy: trailing net margin is **-6.6%**, ROE is deeply negative, and cash flow per share is still below zero, which means one strong quarter does not automatically fix a structurally challenged model. > > 3. 🎯 This is now a sentiment-driven stock, not a sleepy healthcare name: shares are up more than **117% in a day** and beta is **2.28**, so if the turnaround keeps working there may be upside, but volatility and disappointment risk are both very high. > **🎯 Quick Health Check** > > | Dimension | Rating | Details | > |-----------|--------|---------| > | Profitability | Weak👎 | Net margin **-6.6%**, still loss-making on a TTM basis | > | Growth Rate | Fast🚀 | 3-year revenue growth **29.87%** | > | Financial Health | Moderate💛 | Debt/equity **27.61%**, but liquidity is tight with current ratio **1.02** | > | Valuation | [Data unavailable] | PE **[Data unavailable]** due to negative trailing earnings | --- ## 📋 Layer 2: 2-Minute Deep Dive #### 📊 How Does This Company Make Money? **Business Model in One Sentence:** agilon health works with primary care physician groups, helping them manage senior patients under value-based care contracts and making money from healthcare services and shared savings economics. **Revenue Breakdown:** | Business | Share | Trend | Comment | |----------|-------|-------|---------| | Value-based care / physician network platform | [Data unavailable] | ↑ | Revenue has grown fast over the past 3–5 years, suggesting partner expansion and/or larger patient volumes | | Other / contract-related healthcare services | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | Detailed segment split was not provided in the data | **Profitability Metrics:** | Metric | Value | Ranking | Interpretation | |--------|-------|---------|----------------| | Gross Margin | **-0.76%** | Below Average | Very thin and slightly negative gross margin suggests little room for error in pricing and medical cost control | | Net Margin | **-6.6%** | Below Average | The business has not yet proven it can convert scale into consistent profits | | ROE | **-116.65%** | Below Average | Extremely weak; losses are large relative to equity base | --- #### 📈 How's the Growth? **Growth Assessment:** **High Growth, but uneven quality** | Metric | Latest | vs Last Year | Trend | |--------|--------|--------------|-------| | Revenue Growth | **[Data unavailable]** | **[Data unavailable]** | 3-year trend suggests strong expansion | | Profit Growth | **[Data unavailable]** | **[Data unavailable]** | Highly volatile; recent quarter improved sharply after a string of large losses | **Growth Quality:** > What’s interesting is that AGL’s top-line history looks strong—3-year revenue growth is nearly **30%**—but the earnings record has been all over the place. In other words, growth has been real, yet not consistently profitable. The latest quarter looks encouraging because it came with both a profit swing and raised guidance, but this still needs to be proven over several quarters, not just one. --- #### 💰 Financial Health Check **One Sentence:** Think of it like a business that doesn’t have a crushing debt load, but has been running with thin liquidity and inconsistent cash generation—so it’s not drowning, but it’s not comfortably funded either. | Metric | Value | Safe Zone | Assessment | |--------|-------|-----------|------------| | Debt Ratio | **27.61%** debt/equity | <60% safe | ✅Safe | | Current Ratio | **1.02** | >1.5 healthy | ⚠️Tight | | Cash Flow | **-$0.17/share** | >0 | ⚠️Volatile | --- #### 🏷️ Is It Expensive Now? **Price Position (based on 52-week range):** - 52-Week Low: **$7.48** - 52-Week High: **$119.50** - Current: **$60.66**, **In the middle** | Position Range | Cheap Zone | Fair Zone | Pricey Zone | |----------------|------------|-----------|-------------| | Criteria | 0-33% | 33-66% | 66-100% | | **Current** | | ●(**47.5%** position) | | **Valuation Comparison:** | Comparison | Current | Reference | Assessment | |------------|---------|-----------|------------| | vs Own History | PE **[Data unavailable]** | 5-year avg **[Data unavailable]** | [Data unavailable] | | vs Peers | PE **[Data unavailable]** | Industry avg **[Data unavailable]** | [Data unavailable] | **What the Current Valuation is Betting On:** > Basically, the market is betting that the ugly part of the story is behind it. With a **P/S of just 0.078x**, the stock still looks optically cheap on sales, but that only matters if margins recover. Right now, the share price seems to reflect hope that AGL can turn recent earnings improvement into a real multi-quarter turnaround. --- #### 📰 Any Recent News? | Date | Event | Impact | |------|-------|--------| | 2026-05-06 | Q1 2026 earnings beat; swung to profit, revenue hit **$1.42B**, EPS **$1.80**, guidance raised | **Positive** — this is the main reason the stock re-rated sharply | | 2026-05-06 | Jefferies upgraded AGL to Buy and raised target to **$48** | **Positive** — shows improving sell-side confidence, though current price is already above that target | | 2026-05-06 | Deutsche Bank upgrade; Evercore raised target to **$32** but kept In-Line | **Mixed Positive** — sentiment is improving, but analysts are still not uniformly bullish | | 2026-05-05 | JPMorgan downgrade | **Negative** — reminds you that conviction is still split and the debate is not settled | --- ## 📊 Layer 3: Want More? 3-Minute Complete Analysis #### I. Detailed Financial Data **Profitability Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Gross Margin | **-0.76%** | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | Net Margin | **-6.6%** | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | | ROE | **-116.65%** | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | **Growth Trends:** | Metric | This Year | Last Year | Year Before | 3-Year Trend | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|--------------| | Revenue Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | ↑ | | Profit Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | Highly volatile | | EPS Growth | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | [Data unavailable] | --- #### II. Earnings Track Record **Last 4 Quarters vs Expectations:** | Quarter | EPS Expected | EPS Actual | Surprise | |---------|--------------|------------|----------| | 2026-03-31 | $0.91 | $1.80 | +97.0% Beat 😀 | | 2025-12-31 | -$6.78 | -$11.50 | -69.5% Miss 😟 | | 2025-09-30 | -$4.00 | -$6.75 | -68.9% Miss 😟 | | 2025-06-30 | -$2.91 | -$6.25 | -114.7% Miss 😟 | **Earnings Trend Interpretation:** The pattern here is pretty dramatic: three ugly misses in a row, then one huge beat. That usually tells you the business is either going through a genuine operating inflection or that results are still highly noisy. Worth noting: one blockbuster quarter can repair sentiment fast, but investors usually want at least 2–3 clean quarters before trusting the new trend. --- #### III. What the Market Thinks **Analyst Ratings:** | Rating | Count | Percentage | |--------|-------|------------| | Strong Buy/Buy | **2 firms** | **8.3%** | | Hold | **15 firms** | **62.5%** | | Sell | **7 firms** | **29.2%** | **Target Price:** **$32 ~ $48** (based on available recent updates; median **$40**) **vs Current Price:** **about 20.9% downside risk** versus that median **Insider Activity:** Net **mixed, mostly small tax-related selling plus one large award/grant** in past 3 months > Most recent insider sales were coded **F**, which usually means shares were sold to cover taxes, not a classic “I’m bailing out” signal. There was also a **+70,000-share** acquisition by Benjamin Shaker on 2026-04-01, which softens the negative read. --- #### IV. Key Risk Alerts **3 Risks to Watch:** 1. **Execution Risk:** AGL’s model depends on managing medical costs well under value-based care contracts → If cost trends worsen, margins could swing back into deep losses. 2. **Turnaround Credibility Risk:** The latest quarter was great, but trailing profitability metrics are still poor → If the next quarters disappoint, the stock could give back gains quickly. 3. **Volatility / Sentiment Risk:** Beta is **2.28** and the stock just had a huge one-day move → If analysts cut targets or guidance cools, price swings could be severe. --- ### 🎬 Summary & Next Steps > **📝 Three-Sentence Summary** > > **What it is:** agilon health is a healthcare platform built around value-based care for primary care groups, and the market is now treating it like a possible turnaround play. > > **Key strength:** The big positive is that revenue scale is real and Q1 2026 showed a sharp swing to profit with raised guidance, which can reset investor expectations fast. > > **Key risk:** The main concern is that trailing profitability, cash flow, and earnings consistency are still weak, so this is not yet a clean recovery story. --- > **🔍 Want to Learn More?** > > • Want to know if this company has a strong moat? → Try【Buffett Mode】for deeper analysis > > • Want to check for hidden landmines? → Try【Muddy Mode】for risk screening > > • Is this a growth stock? Want to calculate if it's worth the bet? → Try【Musk Mode】for analysis